Wise Multi-Asset Growth

Equities also reacted positively to these developments, driven by a relief about the absence of escalation which could have negatively impacted global growth, and the anticipation that a ceasefire in the region could last. Financial markets were also supported by a clear sense of de-escalation of tensions between the US and the rest of the world in June. The Group of Seven (G7) meeting in Canada did not see any new war of words between Trump and other global leaders. Instead, it is becoming obvious that counterparts of the US are now going out of their ways to stop antagonizing Trump, which is in contrast with their attitudes earlier in his second mandate. This was blatantly apparent during that meeting and the subsequent NATO (the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a collective defence system of 30 European countries, the US and Canada) summit at the end of the month, which was kept purposedly short to avoid opportunities of tension (and to keep Trump’s attention!) and before which a great deal of work had been done to ensure an agreement satisfying to Trump was in place. The result was the commitment by NATO members to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP in order to secure protection from the US. Greater cooperation also came in other forms last month, such as a trade deal, albeit very limited, between the US and China and the signature of the trade deal between the US and the UK. In addition, concessions were given to US companies to a global minimum tax regime, and Trump hinted at the extension of the looming July 8^th/9^th deadlines on the implementation of global tariffs. Signs are thus that the rest of the world is adapting to Trump 2.0’s style, with Trump responding by being more conciliatory, but it is impossible to predict how long this new equilibrium will last for, so some caution remains warranted.

In other developments, the US central banks kept interest rates on hold, downgrading its outlook for growth and unemployment, while increasing its forecast for inflation due to the uncertainty caused by Trump’s tariffs. Similarly, the Bank of England left rates unchanged as inflation remains concerningly high at 3.4%, but weakness in the job market and GDP figures released during the month showing a contraction left the door open for a rate cut in August. A year into the Labour government, there is a sense that an increasing number of Labour MPs “smell blood” and are willing to push the government into corners after it showed signs of wavering on issues such as winter fuel allowance, benefits cuts, inheritance tax or taxation of non-doms. This is likely to lead to increasing expectations that the Autumn budget will see some tax increases to finance such concessions. In Europe, the central bank cut its benchmark rates but indicated that, having halved the rate from 4% to 2% in the last year, its easing cycle was nearly concluded. Finally, China continues to show some weakness with weaker manufacturing and deflationary pressures.

It was thus a strong month for so-called risk assets (equities, bonds and commodities) with technology companies benefitting from abated tensions and a reversal to the old playbook, while smaller companies were supported by an improving risk sentiment and ongoing corporate activities. While the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is still making its way through the legislative process in the US, bond investors are slightly more sanguine about the threat of larger deficits, but it is interesting to note that gold remains well supported close to its all-time high as a sign that not all concerns have evaporated.

In June, the IFSL Wise Multi-Asset Growth Fund was up 3.3%, ahead of both the CBOE UK All Companies Index (+0.6%) and its peer group, the IA Flexible Investment sector (+1.7%). At the halfway point of the year, the Fund is up 6.1% against 9% for the CBOE UK All Companies Index and 2% for the IA Flexible Investment sector. Improving sentiment in the UK market and in investment companies in particular, thanks to extreme valuations and a flurry of corporate activity (mergers, returning cash to shareholders, share buybacks, reduction in fees…), helped discounts in our holdings narrow in June. Some of the biggest movers were in private equity (ICG Enterprise, Pantheon), emerging markets (Templeton Emerging Markets) and our renewables holdings. Our UK small companies managers also performed well, helped by increasing mergers and acquisitions in the sector, particularly Odyssean and Aberforth Smaller Companies. The abatement in global tension supported BlackRock World Mining in the commodities space, while sentiment in the biotechnology space might finally be recovering, helped by positive comments from RFK Jr, Secretary of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, among others, indicating they understand the importance of the sector and how much damage uncertainty and red tape might cause.

Our holding in the activist strategy Achilles we bought at its launch in February proved its worth with the announcement that its first investment in Urban Logistics generated a 37% return in that short period of time after being acquired LondonMetric.

In terms of portfolio activity, we used the strong movements higher in some of our holdings to book some profits, including in a few of the names mentioned earlier (ICG Enterprise, BlackRock World Mining). We also trimmed our position in the Jupiter Gold and Silver fund, up almost 50% year-to-date. We continue to believe that the underlying holdings in that fund have further upside but it makes sense from a risk management standpoint to keep banking profits after such strong returns. We also sold the shares we had only bought in May in Odyssean when the trust looked very undervalued. The shares rebounded 15% since then and it remains our largest position.

We used those profits to top RIT Capital Partners up, as well as increasing our cash position, waiting for better opportunities to redeploy.